Reflecting on 2021, Looking Towards 2022
Come for my top games of the year ranking. Read the Arcade analysis because the rankings are at the bottom and you'll have to scroll through them anyway.
2021 was… a weird year full of great games, but a bit of a boring one for Apple Arcade. It started off with a bang and simmered down towards the end. It ultimately felt a bit disappointing. As we start 2022 I wanted to take a moment to reflect on my own feelings about Apple Arcade and make some predictions for where I see the service going in 2022.
Where the Service Went
My expectation coming into this article would clearly show Apple slowing down from launching brand new games on the Arcade service. I was surprised to see that wasn’t the case. In 2020, Apple released 30 brand new games. In 2021, that stayed pretty steady with 35 new games. The bigger story of 2021 the 46 (this is a rough count) “Plus” games, representing re-releases of older and existing titles on iOS.
The shift was greeted with a lot of enthusiasm from a number of outlets and made a lot of sense strategically and for users. Having a big backlog of games players already loves is an important way to keep existing users happy. But if we look at the percentage of new and old titles, and the way that releases have been announced, it seems like Apple's strategy shifted from focusing on new games to looking something more similar to what Google's been doing with the Play Pass, but with a more exclusive set of games.
As TinyTouchTales walks through in their year-end report, these subscription models have become important ways for premium titles to make money on App Stores, as free-to-play models dominate. But this isn’t where Apple started out. Why the shift?
The Prestige of It All
When Apple launched Arcade, the launch trailer highlighted a crop of brand new games from well-known indies and established brands. The announcement and the title made it feel like Apple wanted Arcade to be the destination for premium mobile gaming, potentially an answer to the charge that mobile games were only about free-to-play content.
While Apple owns a measly 4% of the global streaming market share, according to one report, it’s still investing billions of dollars in new shows and renewals. This suggests Apple is interested in their streaming content as a strategy beyond pure market share.
Prestige is a pretty nebulous concept, but I’d like to focus on the idea that it’s some combination of writing, discussion, and news related to the content in question. This isn’t universally true of course, Yellowstone is both wildly popular, marketed like a prestige drama, and also not discussed all that much. Basically, the fact that Ted Lasso has its own spotlight section in the New York Times has value for Apple, even if they’re not racking up TV+ subscriptions.
I think Apple sees value in TV+ having premium and prestige content as a value add for iPhone owners, even if its user base isn’t rapidly growing. This hasn’t been the case with Apple Arcade though.
What Happened Next
There were two big differences in what happened with the service after. Basically, Apple Arcade didn’t receive much coverage. For example, googling Apple Arcade New York Times shows a single article referencing the initial announcement. I think Apple expected their $500 million investment to spur a lot of great coverage. That mostly did not happen.
For one thing, New York Times seems institutionally allergic to the concept that games are culturally valuable. The Atlantic employs cultural critic and game design professor, Ian Bogost, but he’s mostly focused on bigger picture technology concepts. Washington Post actually has a dedicated virtual, The Launcher, but like a lot of other more focused outlets, they just didn’t spend a lot of time focusing on the big launch. There were a few articles about specific high-quality games, but not a lot of recurring coverage about the platform overall.
There’s not a lot of games coverage overall, and there’s even less coverage of mobile gaming more generally. Outside of big titles like Genshin Impact (which are also available on other platforms), mobile games are mostly ignored. For example, mobile games got a single award at the Game of the Year show. To me, that's the equivalent of "Best TV" getting a single award category at the Oscars, and having none of its own awards.
While it’s clear that in the broader cultural landscape games still face an uphill battle, I think Apple made a serious miscalculation in terms of understanding how people think about mobile games. Basically, there’s a lot of misunderstanding of what types of games even exist on mobile. Most tellingly, even podcasts like The Boop Show (dedicated to indie gaming) express surprise when they discover a great game on Apple Arcade, even though the launch title features some of the top talents across the industry. I don’t think Apple really understood that when people think of “Mobile Gaming” they mostly think of bad games.
On top of this, the free-to-play revenue is where all of the $$$ is in the App Store, as the Epic trial made clear. So Apple made the obvious choice to pivot to games that could compete with those free-to-play games (so they can collect 100% of the revenue) instead of investing in premium games.
The Nintendo Switch of It All
What’s most interesting about the situation to me is that the Nintendo Switch exists. While culturally people think mobile gaming is a cesspool, the Switch, with its Nindies proves that there’s a market for people who want to play premium games on the go. And while the Switch is a “gaming platform”, it’s not that fundamentally different than what an iPhone and an Apple TV can do with Apple Arcade. An iPhone plus a Backbone Controller does an incredible impression of a Nintendo Switch. So the difference in expectations of the platforms is cultural as much as anything else.
There was clearly an uphill battle to overcome assumptions about mobile gaming, but a different strategy and better community outreach could have overcome these challenges. Now it’s possible that Apple doesn’t have any interest in investing in a service that hits “Nindies” level profits, but the existence of the Switch shows that there’s probably an opportunity for a premium games community to thrive on a smartphone.
So What About 2022?
Based on that, I expect 2022 to be more of the same. Here are my predictions
There will be fewer than 10 brand-new titles on the service, and fewer than 5 new indies (a pretty hand-wavey concept), in 2022. (65% confident)
Over 75% of the games on the service will be plus titles. (80% confident)
Fewer games will be released on the service overall this year, closer to 60 than 70. (60% confident)
Most (over 50%) of the games released on Apple Arcade in 2022 will have free-to-play type mechanics and engagement. (90% confident)
The biggest question mark that I’d like to call out is whether or not Apple intends to make Arcade part of its rumored AR/VR headset launch as this iMore article predicts.
Maybe Apple has something up their sleeves, but I'm skeptical. It’s easy to build a picture where Arcade and the headset feed into one another: i.e. Apple Arcade games provide the “killer app” for a brand new headset. But, most of the games currently on Apple Arcade have been built for mobile. For example, the recent Hearts and Spades games are mobile games. Would they be any fun on VR anyway?
With that in mind I predict:
The Apple headset (if it launches) will launch without Apple Arcade. (70% confident)
What would a Headset Arcade Launch Look Like?
While I expect more of the same from Apple, I’d like to stop and consider what a relaunch for Apple Arcade might look like with the headset.
I would expect Arcade to launch with a bunch of existing titles that people already appreciate about VR, or that could be ported to VR. Games like Beat Saber and Superhot come to mind.
I would expect Apple to focus on a couple of high-profile games (maybe even just one) to be an Arcade VR exclusive.
A plan to market and promote a slow drip of new titles on the platform over time.
The biggest takeaway from the iMore article is that the launch of a new platform offers the opportunity for Apple to reboot expectations about Arcade, I’m just skeptical they’ll jump on it.
What This Means for Journey to the Core
I still want to spend a lot of time highlighting the awesome games on Apple Arcade. But instead of solely focusing on past releases, I’m going to put more effort into staying up to date with more recent titles, especially the ones that are brand new. If Arcade does in fact come to a rumored headset, I want to talk about it ASAP! I’m really excited to talk about Disney Melee Mania next week!
The lack of new games also means I’ll think about talking about other games on iOS as well. Titles that, like the recently released Gem Wizards, may be available on other platforms, but have interesting mobile versions that I want to dig into further.
I’d love to hear what you think! Leave a comment if you agree or disagree with my predictions for 2022.
A Couple of Recommendations To Finish It Off
And now that you've gotten all the way through that diatribe, here are my games of the year on Mobile.
Best Apple Arcade Games of 2021
Apple Arcade had fewer new games this year, but the ones that launched were pretty spectacular. I’m sure Fantasian belongs on this list, but I never actually got around to it.
#1 Cozy Grove
Cozy Grove is an Animal Crossing-like game. You are a scout on an abandoned island full of spirit bears whom you run errands for, collecting items, and building up your campsite. It’s not typically the style of game I play, but the art, fun writing, and straightforward mechanics made it my favorite Arcade game of the year.
#2 Sp!ng
Puzzle games get a bad rap for being derivative and mindless. SP!NG evokes the best parts of Tiny Wings, when you time a spin just right and let go to see your avatar fly out in the perfect trajectory. And each section employs different mechanics to change up the game and make you think in new ways.
#3 Legends of Kingdom Rush
A member of the ever-popular genre tactical roguelike RPG, Legends of Kingdom Rush comes from Ironhide Studios, the developers behind the Kingdom Rush tower defense games. While I typically don’t like tactical games, the fact that these are fast-paced, have tons of special abilities and different combos made it a fun game at the end of a long day.
#4 LEGO Star Wars Castaways
I could have made this a Top-3 for consistency, but Castaways is so charming it made it onto the list. It’s a pretty typical multi-player dungeon crawl, but it’s a game that feels like it belongs on mobile, has fun story beats, and even has space battles! You can read my full review here.
Best Non-Apple Arcade Mobile Games of 2021
#1 Sliding Seas
There’s a soft spot in my heart for Triple Town. It was the first mobile game I saw that made me think smart designs could come in small packages. Sliding Seas feels like a current take on the merge-puzzle format. You’re trying to rescue shipwrecked travelers by combining tiles to turn sea tiles into land tiles. It’s a freemium title that doesn’t go overboard on the extras or requests to give them money.
#2 Overboard
In the series of incredible gameplay matched with effortless feeling writing, a short game loop with a challenging puzzle, Overboard! has Hades level polish with mobile-length gameplay. It’s a premium game title that is worth the price.
#3 Moncage
Moncage is the latest release of the games on this list, but it’s still a gem. It’s something of a combination of Gorogoa and The Room, finding new perspectives (literally) to push the story forward.
That’s All Folks!
If you’ve made it to the end, congrats! Thanks for reading and here’s to a great 2022.
If you’ve enjoyed this, or other writing from the last few months, please share it along!